作者：Fabian Moreno  Gurram Gopal Ph.D

为了实现商业目标，公司有各种各样的项目在不断地进行。即使有许多正在进行的计划，决策者也在不断地评估新的提议，以确定应该执行和资助哪一个。通常，项目是根据特定的标准进行评估的，例如投资回报(ROI)和相关的回收期。然而，这常常造成这样一种情况，即项目已经在个别业务案例中获得批准——不能显著地推进组织的战略重点。对于供应链项目来说尤其如此，这些项目通常不会得到高层的太多关注。

To achieve business goals, companies have all kinds of projects in perpetual motion. Even with numerous ongoing initiatives, decision-makers are constantly evaluating new proposals to determine which should be pursued and funded. Typically, projects are evaluated based on specific approval criteria such as return on investment (ROI) and the associated payback period. However, this often creates a situation in which the projects — having been approved on individual business cases — fail to significantly advance the organization’s strategic focus. This is especially true for supply chain projects, which often do not receive much C-suite attention.

长期以来，金融专业人士一直使用投资组合管理来确保金融投资与总体战略和目标保持一致。这种做法还包括投资组合优化，这有助于确定最佳组合以优化性能。供应链专业人士将明智地应用类似的概念，以及来自供应链运营参考（SCOR）模型的关键见解，以确定他们是否拥有最有效的供应链项目组合。

Finance professionals have long used portfolio management to ensure that financial investments are aligned with overall strategies and objectives. This practice also includes portfolio optimization, which helps identify the best possible mix to optimize performance. Supply chain professionals would be wise to apply a similar concept — along with key insights from the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model — to determine if they have the most effective project portfolios for their supply chains.

项目管理协会报告说，项目组合管理在时间、预算和目标实现的三个关键维度上分别增加了30%、28%和21%的项目成功率。此外，Kathy Schwalbe在她的《项目管理导论》一书中描述了Schlumberger的一位项目组合经理，她通过使用组合优化工具管理120个信息技术项目，在一年内为公司节省了300万美元。在这个过程中，80%重叠的计划被合并，与现有项目具有相同目标的工作被完全取消。Forrester Research的前副总裁和首席分析师Craig Symons在《项目组合管理工具的投资回报率》中写道，投资一个全面的项目组合管理工具可能会提供超过250%的投资回报率。

The Project Management Institute reports that portfolio management increases project success in the three key dimensions of time, budget and goal attainment by 30 percent, 28 percent and 21 percent, respectively. Further, in her book “An Introduction to Project Management,” Kathy Schwalbe describes a project portfolio manager at Schlumberger who saved her company $3 million in one year by using portfolio optimization tools to manage 120 information technology projects. In the process, 80 percent of overlapping initiatives were merged, and endeavors that had the same goals as existing projects were canceled altogether. And Craig Symons, former vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research, writes in “The ROI of Project Portfolio Management Tools” that investing in a comprehensive project portfolio management tool is likely to provide an ROI of more than 250 percent.

建立项目组合

Setting up the project portfolio

供应链管理的动态性使得项目选择复杂和分析密集。一些项目实质上只改进了一个度量标准的性能，而另一些项目支持多个度量标准，但是没有那么有效。供应链专业人员受到进一步的挑战，因为对网络的某些部分产生积极影响可能会对其他部分产生不利后果。因为一个组织可能会追求几个不同大小和范围的项目，所以需要确保将一个项目包含在投资组合中，以确保成本、持续时间和总体利益的最小阈值。

The dynamic nature of supply chain management makes project selection complex and analytically intensive. Some projects substantially improve the performance of only one metric, while others support several metrics but not as effectively. Supply chain professionals are further challenged because making a positive impact on some parts of the network can have adverse outcomes on others. Because an organization might pursue several projects of varying size and scope, minimum thresholds for cost, duration and overall benefits need to be assured for a project to be included in the portfolio.

SCOR模型是供应链管理协会的流程参考框架，支持供应链计划、设计和执行。它结合了一组最佳实践和标准化的操作范围。该范围定义了六个关键的供应链活动：计划、来源、制造、交付、退货和启用。SCOR通过可靠性、响应性、敏捷性、成本和资产管理效率等核心性能属性来衡量供应链。

The SCOR model is a process reference framework from the Association for Supply Chain Management that supports supply chain planning, design and execution. It combines a set of best practices with a standardized scope of operations. The scope defines six key supply chain activities: plan, source, make, deliver, return and enable. SCOR measures a supply chain through the core performance attributes of reliability, responsiveness, agility, costs and asset management efficiency.

以下五步过程使组织能够借助SCOR模型评估其供应链项目组合的一致性。其中包括一个公司使用此过程来确定是否要进行三个重要项目（P1，P2和P3）的示例。 P1单机的估计价值为100万美元，其中包括使用新物料处理设备对配送中心进行自动化。其业务案例着重于通过提高生产率，提高可靠性，减少订单履行时间以及增强适应变化的能力而节省成本。P2围绕实施基于云的电子采购应用程序来实现，以改善合同上的支出，节省更多的支出，提高合规性和敏捷性。该项目的独立计算价值为60万美元。P3包括四个客户支持中心的整合、重组和搬迁。预计该项目将减少目前的支持成本，同时提供更迅速的服务和将来扩大规模的能力。它的独立价值为20万美元。

The following five-step process enables an organization to assess the alignment of its supply chain project portfolio with the help of the SCOR model. Included with it is an example of a company’s use of this process to determine whether to pursue three significant projects: P1, P2 and P3. P1, which carried a calculated value of $1 million on a stand-alone basis, involved automation of a distribution center with new material-handling equipment. Its business case focused on cost savings resulting from enhanced productivity, more reliability, reduced order-fulfilment times and greater ability to adapt to change. P2 centered around the implementation of an e-procurement, cloud-based application to enable improved on-contract spending, additional expenditure savings, increased compliance and heightened agility. The project carried a calculated value of $600,000 on a stand-alone basis. P3 encompassed the consolidation, reorganization and relocation of four customer support centers. This project was expected to reduce ongoing support costs while providing more responsive service and the ability to scale in the future. It carried a calculated value of $200,000 in stand-alone value.

步骤1：根据供应链目标，确定每个核心绩效属性的相对权重。

这涉及到应用一种称为层次分析法(AHP)的决策工具来获得优先级权重。AHP对核心绩效属性进行两两比较，通过主观评价实现客观性。应用AHP评分算法对这些两两比较的结果在每个标准的相对权重。

Step 1: Establish the relative weights of importance for each of the core performance attributes based on supply chain objectives. This involves applying a decision-making tool called an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to obtain priority weights. AHP makes pairwise comparisons of the core performance attributes to enable objectivity through subjective ratings. Applying the AHP scoring algorithm to these pairwise comparisons results in a relative weight for each criterion.

在投资组合环境中，决策团队将按1到9的比例对核心绩效属性进行成对比较，1表示同等优先，5表示强烈优先，9表示极度优先。例如，如果属性X与属性Y的成对比较为7，则根据AHP规则，Y与X的成对比较为1 / 7。所有比较的结果将是核心性能属性的相对权重。

In a portfolio context, the decision-making team will conduct pairwise comparisons of the core performance attributes on a scale of 1 to 9, with 1 being equally preferred, 5 being strongly preferred, and 9 being extremely preferred. If a pairwise comparison of attribute X to attribute Y is 7, for example, the pairwise comparison of Y compared to X is one-seventh, per AHP rules. The result of all comparisons will be the relative weights of the core performance attributes.

表1显示了示例投资组合的五个选择属性的两两比较结果：可靠性、响应性、敏捷性、成本和资产管理效率。接下来，决策团队使用这些信息来计算每个核心性能属性的优先级权重。他们认为，可靠性为6.33%，响应性为43.31%，敏捷性为16.06%，成本为30.13%，资产管理有效性为4.18%。

Table 1 shows the results of the pairwise comparisons for the five selected attributes: reliability, responsiveness, agility, costs and asset management efficiency for the example portfolio. Next, the decision-making team used this information to calculate the priority weights for each of the core performance attributes. They weighted reliability at 6.33 percent, responsiveness at 43.31 percent, agility at 16.06 percent, costs at 30.13 percent and asset management effectiveness at 4.18 percent.

项目结构表1 Sturdy Project Structure Table 1

步骤2：根据业务案例中概述的项目收益，确定项目对每个核心性能属性的贡献百分比。

例如,一个商业案例中75%关注于降低供应链成本的电子采购项目，将获得75%的成本属性权重。如果同一个项目的业务案例有20%是针对敏捷性目标的，那么它的敏捷性属性权重为20%。

Step 2: Determine the percent contribution of a project to each of the core performance attributes based on project benefits outlined in the business case. For example, an

e-procurement project with a business case that is 75 percent focused on reducing supply chain costs would receive a weight of 75 percent for the cost attribute. If the same project’s business case is 20 percent targeting agility goals, it gets an agility attribute weight of 20 percent.

表2列出了P1、P2和P3对五个核心性能属性的贡献百分比。

Table 2 lists the percent contributions for P1, P2 and P3 to each of the five core performance attributes.

项目结构表2 Sturdy Project Structure Table 2

步骤3：计算每个项目的SCOR调整值。

项目对SCOR核心性能属性的贡献（如步骤2所确定）乘以步骤1中的优先级权重。然后将此产品乘以项目的独立值，以找到每个项目的SCOR调整值。

Step 3: Compute a SCOR-adjusted value for each project. The contribution of a project to the SCOR core performance attributes, as determined in step 2, is multiplied with the priority weights from step 1. This product is then multiplied by the stand-alone value of the project to find the SCOR-adjusted value for each project.

例如，对于P1的可靠性，经SCOR调整后的值计算为20％（核心绩效属性贡献权重）x 6.33％（优先级权重）x 1,000,000美元（项目值），经SCOR调整后的价值为12,700美元。完整结果记录在表3中。

For example, the SCOR-adjusted value for reliability in P1 was calculated as 20 percent (core performance attribution contribution weight) x 6.33% (priority weight) x $1,000,000 (project value) for a SCOR-adjusted value of $12,700. The full results are reported in Table 3.

项目结构表3 Sturdy Project Structure Table 3

步骤4：确定SCOR策略的一致性。

将投资组合中所有项目的SCOR调整后的值相加，以确定投资组合SCOR调整后的值。然后，将其除以投资组合的总名义价值（换句话说，即所有项目价值的总和），即可找到投资组合的SCOR战略调整值。组合良好的投资组合应使SCOR战略的组合价值超过20％。

Step 4: Ascertain the SCOR strategy alignment. Add the SCOR-adjusted values for all of the projects in the portfolio to determine the portfolio SCOR-adjusted values. Then, divide that by the total nominal value of the portfolio — in other words, the sum of all project values — to find the portfolio’s SCOR strategy alignment value. A well-aligned portfolio should result in a SCOR strategy alignment value of more than 20 percent.

在示例中，将三个项目的SCOR调整后的值相加，以达到SCOR调整后的项目组合价值 513,000美元。考虑到这三个项目的总价值为180万美元，该投资组合的SCOR战略调整为513,000美元/ 1,800,000美元，约占28.5％。这种较低的一致性是由于以下事实：项目在成本属性方面交付了较高的收益，而在响应性和敏捷性方面却获得了较少的收益，而响应性和敏捷性是前三个优先事项中的其他属性。此外，比成本优先级更高的响应能力获得的收益少于成本属性。

In the example, the SCOR-adjusted values for the three projects were added to reach a SCOR-adjusted project portfolio value of $513,000. Given that the total value of the three projects is $1.8 million, the portfolio’s SCOR strategy alignment is $513,000/$1,800,000, or about 28.5 percent. This low alignment is due to the fact that the projects delivered high benefits for the costs attribute but fewer benefits for responsiveness and agility, the other attributes in the top three priorities. Furthermore, responsiveness, which was a higher priority than costs, received less benefit than the costs attribute.

第5步：计划改善投资组合的SCOR战略一致性。

利用第4步的结果，对要执行的项目做出更深思熟虑的决定。更加强调注重改善核心绩效属性的举措。根据示例结果，该公司的高级管理层专注于资助网络优化和改善运输管理等领域的项目，以提高供应链响应能力。

Step 5: Plan for improving the portfolio’s SCOR strategy alignment. Use the results from step 4 to make more thoughtful decisions about which projects to pursue. Place greater emphasis on initiatives that focus on improving the core performance attributes. Based on the example results, senior management at this company focused on funding projects in areas such as network optimization and improvement of transportation management that enhanced supply chain responsiveness.

战略重点 

Strategic focus

项目组合优化框架的主要优点是项目选择过程的简化和系统化。此外，当一个项目完成并从组合中移除时，可以基于当前状态和供应链的焦点重新评估核心绩效属性权重。该框架还支持可伸缩性，可以包含基于SCOR对齐的资源分配。

The major advantages of the project portfolio optimization framework are the simplification of, and systematic approach to, the project selection process. Additionally, when a project is completed and removed from the portfolio, the core performance attribute weights can be reassessed based on the current state and focus of the supply chain. The framework also allows for scalability and can include resource allocation based on SCOR alignment.

 

供应链项目对任何公司的成功都至关重要。为了推动盈利增长，高管们必须将这些项目与业务战略保持一致，并灵活执行。项目组合优化工作是一种行之有效的策略。

Supply chain projects are vital to any company’s success. To drive profitable growth, it is imperative that executives align these projects with the business strategy and be agile in execution. A project portfolio optimization effort is a proven strategy.

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