如何识别领先和落后的关键绩效指标

How to Spot Leading and Lagging Key-Performance Indicators

Peter Sherman

2018年5月15日星期二

与Muthuraman Annamalai合著

Peter Sherman

Tuesday May 15, 2018

Co-authored with Muthuraman Annamalai

关键绩效指标(KPIs)帮助组织根据目标度量进展。APICS字典将KPI定义为“与特定战略目标和目标相关联的财务或非财务度量，无论是战术上的还是战略上的”。常见的KPI包括销售、利润率、收益率、准时发货、未完成销售天数、客户满意度和事故率。但这些一定是管理企业的最佳标准吗?它们是领先指标还是落后指标?

Key performance indicators (KPIs) help organizations measure progress against a goal. The APICS Dictionary defines a KPI as “a financial or nonfinancial measure, either tactical or strategic, that is linked to specific strategic goals and objectives.” Common KPIs include sales, profit margins, yield, on-time shipment, days sales outstanding, customer satisfaction and accident rates. But are these necessarily the best gauges to manage a business? Are they leading or lagging indicators?

滞后KPIs是那些不能直接执行的KPI。它们缺乏必要的数据来揭示客户的感受或内部运营状况。当这些KPIs显示出负面趋势时，问题已经存在很长时间了。

Lagging KPIs are those that cannot be directly acted on. They lack the necessary data to reveal how customers feel or what internal operations are experiencing. By the time these KPIs show a negative trend, something has been wrong for a long time.

然而，领先的KPIs在本质上具有预测性。根据APICS字典，一个领先的指标是“一个特定的商业活动指数，表明未来的趋势。”“这对任何试图改善日常运营或实现战略目标的组织都具有特殊意义。领先指标可以作为强大的杠杆，在周期的早些时候实时修正航向。

Leading KPIs, however, are predictive in nature. According to the APICS Dictionary, a leading indicator is “a specific business activity index that indicates future trends.” This has particular relevance to any organization trying to improve day-to-day operations or achieve strategic goals. Leading indicators can be used as powerful levers to make real-time course corrections earlier in the cycle.

以下是识别领先指标的三种技术。

Following are three techniques for identifying leading indicators.

方法1:统计。预测统计将输入与输出或因果联系起来。这种关系的强度可以用相关系数来确定——换句话说，在一对分布中变量之间线性关系的程度。相关系数r从1.00到-1.00。如果有一个强关系，r将接近1或-1。应该使用散点图来显示这种关系。在散点图中，如果回归曲线是陡峭的，并且数据点紧密地聚集在直线周围，则存在很强的相关性。较弱的关系表现为平稳的回归和分散的数据点。值得注意的是，相关性并不意味着因果关系。

Approach 1: statistical. Predictive statistics link inputs with outputs, or causes and effects. The strength of that relationship can be determined using the coefficient of correlation — in other words, the degree of the linear relationship between variables in a pair of distributions. The coefficient of correlation, r, ranges from 1.00 to -1.00. If there is a strong relationship, r will be close to 1 or -1. A scatter plot should be used to show such relationships. Strong correlation exists if the regression line in the scatter plot is steep, with the data points tightly clustered around the line. Weak relationships are evidenced by a flat regression and scattered data points. It is important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

例如，考虑一家提前交货时间(滞后指标)平均为5.5天的公司。管理层确定了几个影响交货时间的变量，包括运输距离、货物重量和订单量。他们收集了90天的历史航运数据，并通过检验每个输入变量与提前期的相关性，量化了这三个输入变量的预测值。通过分析可知，订单量是影响交货期的最主要预测变量。有了这些信息，该业务能够更好地集中精力简化实现过程。

As an example, consider a company with lead time — a lagging indicator — that averaged 5.5 days at its distribution center. Management identified several variables that affected lead time, including distance traveled, cargo weight and order volume. They collected 90 days of historical shipping data and quantified the predictive value of the three input variables by examining the correlation of each with the lead time. Based on the analysis, it was clear that order volume was the most predictive variable influencing lead time. Armed with this information, this business was able to better focus efforts on streamlining the fulfillment process. 

方法2:价值流。该方法由三个步骤组成——在战略层面识别kpi，如准时发货、损坏或丢失的产品、销售和利润率;接下来，绘制价值流;最后，将每个KPI与价值流中的相应部分进行匹配。价值流中应该考虑的部分包括产品开发、销售、采购、运营、信息技术和招聘。对于所有表示价值流的关键涉众，要问:为什么KPI没有得到满足?是什么影响或推动了KPI?从价值流的末尾开始，并自始至终提出这些问题。目标是获得主要决定下游或滞后kpi的领先或预测指标。

Approach 2: value stream. This method is composed of three steps — identifying KPIs at the strategic level, such as on-time shipments, damaged or lost products, sales and profit margins; next, drawing the value stream; and finally, matching each KPI with the corresponding section in the value stream. Segments of the value stream that should be considered include product development, sales, procurement, operations, information technology and recruitment. With all the key stakeholders representing the value stream, ask: Why is the KPI not being met? and What influences or drives this KPI? Start at the end of the value stream, and continue posing these questions through to the beginning. The goal is to arrive at the leading or predictor indicators that largely determine the downstream or lagging KPIs.  

一家财富500强的制造公司在努力达到交付可靠性KPI时使用了这种方法。2008年，交付可靠性为40%。管理团队评估是否正在度量正确的东西，以及交付可靠性是否是领先或滞后的指标。然后，他们列出了从订单到交付的价值流。他们问为什么服务这么差，是什么驱动了交付的可靠性。结果，生产团队无法跟上生产进度，因为它一直在变化。材料管理团队解释说，之所以会发生这种情况，是因为他们不断地用完材料。工程师们接着说，他们必须不断地与客户反复沟通，以澄清规格。对客户订单的抽样调查证实，这些订单是模糊的，而且常常缺少信息。最后，一开始的运输问题被发现是一个订单问题。完善定单率作为可靠的交付可靠性预指标出现，而今天，KPI超过99%。

A Fortune 500 manufacturing company used this method when it was struggling to meet a delivery reliability KPI. In 2008, delivery reliability was 40 percent. The management team evaluated if the right things were being measured and if delivery reliability was a leading or lagging indicator. Then, they laid out the value stream from order to delivery. They asked why service was so poor and what was driving delivery reliability. Turns out, the production team couldn’t keep up with the production schedule because it was constantly changing. The materials management team explained that this was happening because they were constantly running out of materials. The engineers then said that they constantly had to go back and forth with customers to clarify specifications. A sampling of customer orders confirmed that they were vague and often had missing information. In the end, what began as a shipping problem was revealed to be an order issue. The clean order rate emerged as a reliable pre-indicator of delivery reliability, and today, that KPI exceeds 99 percent.

方法3:角色扮演。作为业务所有者和客户，与关键干系人进行角色扮演是确定哪些kpi处于领先和落后指标的有效方法。要做到这一点，首先让每个人都假装自己拥有这家企业，并在便利贴上写下他们需要的一条信息或衡量标准，以便妥善管理它。将便利贴放在价值流旁边的挂图上。然后，让每个人都行动起来，问问客户，告诉他们，他们公司的服务或产品可以从其他企业获得，价格也差不多。让他们在另一张便利贴上写下他们将如何决定选择哪家公司。包括具体原因。同样，将便利贴放在价值流旁边的挂图上。通常情况下，清单会完全不同。因此，这种方法的最后一步是确定如何将它们联合起来，使两个涉众都满意。

Approach 3: role playing. Role playing with key stakeholders, as both business owner and customers, is an effective way to determine which KPIs are leading and lagging indicators. To do this, have everyone first pretend they own the business and write down on a sticky note one piece of information or metric they would need to properly manage it. Place the sticky notes on a flip chart next to the value stream. Then, have everyone act ask the customers, and tell them their company’s service or product is available from other businesses and is similarly priced. Ask them to write down on another sticky note how they would decide which company to choose. Include specific reasons. Again, place the sticky notes on a flip chart next to the value stream. More often than not, the lists will be starkly dissimilar. The final step to this approach, therefore, is to determine how to unite them so both stakeholders are satisfied.

提高KPIs

Enhanced KPIs

一旦这三种技术都完成了，就该问更多的问题了:这些指标是可度量的吗?管理层是否理解如何使用和解释它们?他们是否愿意整合这些指标到基本的商业管理中?

Once these three techniques are complete, it’s time to ask some more questions: Are the indicators measurable? Does management understand how to use and interpret them? Are they willing to incorporate them on a regular basis to manage the business?

最后，要注意的是，我们的目标并不是只对领先指标进行管理，而忽视落后指标。每个组织都需要两者。领先指标为更好地管理业务提供了更早的信号;滞后指标表明，在更广泛的成果方面是否正在取得进展。

Finally, note that the objective is not to manage solely with leading indicators and neglect the lagging ones. Every organization needs both. Leading indicators provide earlier signals to better manage the business; lagging indicators demonstrate if progress is being made on the broader outcomes.